Description

This analysis provides a forecast of VET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 0.033364 0.037987 0.043043 0.048987 0.055788 0.063335 0.072352
2025-02-02 0.026750 0.033183 0.040864 0.050729 0.063094 0.078116 0.097813
2025-02-09 0.023217 0.030512 0.039753 0.052358 0.069169 0.090909 0.121304
2025-02-16 0.020039 0.027594 0.037635 0.052017 0.072198 0.099665 0.140155
2025-02-23 0.017832 0.025565 0.036277 0.052288 0.075769 0.109190 0.160805
2025-03-02 0.015791 0.023458 0.034477 0.051580 0.077669 0.116315 0.178538
2025-03-09 0.014574 0.022372 0.033964 0.052596 0.082077 0.127399 0.203267
2025-03-16 0.013174 0.020833 0.032575 0.052058 0.083931 0.134626 0.222575
2025-03-23 0.012460 0.020273 0.032608 0.053708 0.089351 0.147931 0.253131
2025-03-30 0.011155 0.018619 0.030718 0.051993 0.088988 0.151620 0.267682
2025-04-06 0.010208 0.017458 0.029511 0.051270 0.090175 0.157946 0.287384
2025-04-13 0.009158 0.016019 0.027697 0.049300 0.088939 0.159852 0.299172
2025-04-20 0.008821 0.015808 0.028003 0.051166 0.094871 0.175340 0.338356
2025-04-27 0.008491 0.015580 0.028261 0.052973 0.100890 0.191637 0.381091
2025-05-04 0.008174 0.015341 0.028464 0.054678 0.106861 0.208407 0.426661
2025-05-11 0.007614 0.014589 0.027643 0.054321 0.108738 0.217335 0.457151
2025-05-18 0.007186 0.014052 0.027176 0.054604 0.111902 0.229119 0.494965
2025-05-25 0.006679 0.013313 0.026250 0.053863 0.112867 0.236442 0.523893
2025-06-01 0.006413 0.013032 0.026204 0.054926 0.117725 0.252424 0.573939
2025-06-08 0.006002 0.012417 0.025425 0.054363 0.119002 0.260777 0.607460
2025-06-15 0.005844 0.012316 0.025698 0.056089 0.125494 0.281294 0.671971
2025-06-22 0.005376 0.011516 0.024429 0.054295 0.123848 0.283206 0.691797
2025-06-29 0.005037 0.010968 0.023656 0.053539 0.124510 0.290493 0.725699